Anticipation is mounting for Thursday night’s clash between the South Alabama Jaguars and the Appalachian State Mountaineers, set against the scenic backdrop of Boone, North Carolina. As Week 4 kicks off, early betting trends indicate that the game’s total could soar into the mid-60s, promising an exhilarating encounter as the Sun Belt Conference showcases its vibrant potential.
This matchup stands alone in the college football lineup for Thursday, overshadowed only by the NFL’s Patriots vs. Jets, suggesting it might not capture the full attention of bettors.
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Game Details: South Alabama Jaguars at Appalachian State Mountaineers (-7, 64)
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
South Alabama enters this matchup with a record of 1-2, bolstered by an astonishing 87-10 victory over Northwestern State last week—yes, that score is accurate. The Jaguars demonstrated offensive prowess, accumulating 620 yards against the winless Demons, who suffered a 62-28 defeat to Tulsa in their opener.
Conversely, Appalachian State stands at 2-1, with a notable 66-10 setback against Clemson. While their Week 1 victory over East Tennessee State was unremarkable, a hard-fought 21-19 triumph over East Carolina showcased resilience. Although their scoring output seems modest, the Mountaineers amassed 515 total yards, with Joey Aguilar contributing a staggering 424 through the air.
Despite a few costly mistakes, including a pick-six and a red-zone fumble, App State football rebounded from an early 16-point deficit. Having initially been a favorite in the Sun Belt, their performance thus far has been somewhat disappointing, but they are positioned well to kick off league play with a victory.
Statistically, the Mountaineers average 5.7 yards per play against FBS opponents, while the Jaguars lead with 6.3. However, App State’s struggles against top-tier competition like Clemson, which they conceded 9.8 yards per play to, contrast sharply with South Alabama’s losses to Ohio and North Texas.
The defensive struggles are evident: App State allowed 5.6 yards per play to ECU, while South Alabama has given up 6.6 yards per play in their matchups, including over 7.2 to North Texas. Such defensive vulnerabilities explain the rising total for this game.
It’s particularly troubling that App State averages just 4.3 yards per carry this season, dropping to 2.7 against East Carolina. Although Aguilar is on track to achieve historic quarterback numbers for the program, the team currently lacks offensive balance.
Entering the season, I anticipated South Alabama’s challenges, especially with former head coach Kane Wommack now managing defensive plays in Tuscaloosa, and former defensive coordinator Corey Batoon taking the reins at Missouri. Despite my reservations about App State’s metrics, my Power Ratings favor them by 7 points in this contest.
Now, regarding the total—I’m inclined to back the Over 64, aligning with popular sentiment. App State football is aware their rushing attack is faltering, placing the onus squarely on Aguilar’s shoulders. Additionally, Gio Lopez of South Alabama boasts an impressive 7/0 touchdown-to-interception ratio, having thrown for 432 yards against North Texas.
The defensive units of both teams have collectively allowed 82 plays of 10 or more yards, 25 plays of 20 yards or more, and 13 plays of 30 yards or more. Expect a night rife with explosive plays come Thursday.
